NFL MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
The matchup room
Week 3 · Pregame intelligence · 2026 season
WEEK 3 · FEATURED MATCHUPFOX
Los AngelesChargers
0-2 · AWAY
BuffaloBills
2-0 · HOME
Sep 27 · Sun, 1:00 PM EDTHighmark Stadium
THE VERDICTPREGAME ESTIMATE
16.2%
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS
BILLSStrong lean
83.6%
BUFFALO BILLS
PROJECTED SCORE18 — 28
UPSET CHANCE16.2%
TIE PROBABILITY0.2%
Score range: 6–30 LAC / 16–40 BUF. Rough 80% per-team interval from 2024 calibration.
Opponent-adjusted form
Bills: 1601 rating versus 1498. Ratings update after every completed game.
Scoring matchup
Bills average 31.2 scored; Chargers allow 20.2. Weighted last 12 games.
Venue & recovery
Bills play at home. 10 days of rest versus 7 for Chargers.
Saved data · Sep 22, 1:50 PM EDT
| TEAM METRIC | LAC | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Strength rating | 1498 | 1601 |
| Points scored / game¹ | 15.8 | 31.2 |
| Points allowed / game¹ | 20.2 | 24.7 |
| Passer rating² | 71.6 | 125.8 |
| Sacks allowed / game² | 3.0 | 2.0 |
| Defensive sacks / game² | 1.5 | 3.5 |
| Rest days | 7 | 10 |
| Game conditions | Open-air venue | Forecast pending |
¹ Weighted last 12 games, including the prior season. ² Current season, as of the data timestamp. Small samples receive less weight.
LAC DEPTH-CHART QBJustin Herbert
BUF DEPTH-CHART QBJosh Allen